Market InsightWith no sale at HRLX over the next fortnight (back on the April 30 ), we wanted to take the opportunity to share some insights on the current cattle market—particularly around the recent tariff developments in the US and what they mean for our industry.
Earlier this month, the US imposed a 10% tariff on imported goods, including Australian beef. While this may seem like a big hit at first glance, the actual impact could be less severe than anticipated.
What’s Happening in the US?
The US is currently facing significant drought conditions, which have driven their national herd down to 86.7 million head—the lowest since 1961. As a result, their overall meat imports have surged, up 24.4% year-on-year in 2024, and 38.8% higher than in 2020(ABARES, April 2024) (CattleFax, Jan 2025).
Australia has played a major role in meeting this demand, with exports to the US growing 68% since 2020 and up 22% from last year alone. The US now accounts for roughly 30.5% of our total beef exports (ABARES, April 2024).
Despite the 10% tariff, Australian beef remains competitively priced. For example, imported 90CL boneless beef is sitting at around $318/cwt, compared to $381/cwt for domestic US beef (MLA, March 2025)—thanks in part to a favourable Aussie dollar.
It’s not just the US showing strong demand. Australian beef exports are gaining traction in key Asian markets:
Japan – Market share has grown from 38% in 2022 to 47% in 2024
South Korea – Up from 35% to 45% over the same period. (Reuters, October 2024)
The Bottom Line
While the new US tariff adds some pressure, the bigger picture is still bright. Demand for Aussie beef remains strong globally, and current conditions point to continued opportunity for producers.
As always, if you have questions or want to discuss the market in more detail, don’t hesitate to reach out.
